Incidence and accidents before May 29, 2016 (The NICOT Team Forecast)
Recently, me and my team has been conducting threat assessments feasibility studies nationwide. And as Head and Director of Operations of the Nicot Team, I felt duty bound after serious consultations with NICOT members and some anonymous persons, to make this findings public, in such a way as reducing the technical jargons for readability and comprehensibility. It was also collectively agreed that is a service to humanity and fatherland.
Let me make it clear, that this is purely a work based on independent intelligence analysis program. It is from no expert or certified personnel in the tradecraft of espionage, safe for few members with the hunch for National Security and Intelligence, who in some ways are still students, and not yet professional with standard authority in the tradecraft.
The NiCoT are bunch of guys expressing their out of the box imaginations and frolicking with Intelligence guessworks and puzzles. Hence this may come out outlandished, an exercise of extreme exaggeration, wild conjectures and senile speculations; yet in our usual work, individuals and the general public are allowed to guess and take a back seat in the entire puzzle exercise.
We therefore appeal that the general public and the security paraphernalia not to wash this analysis to the dustbin of wishful thinking, but to carry out their own spaceflights comparison with their various expert sources.
Following the upsurge in criminal activities of the “Fulani Herdsmen” and kidnapping, the NiCoT saw the need for this terror alert warning.
Once again, for the essence of this post, NICOT (Nigeria Counter Terrorism Unit) is in existence.
NiCoT is in existence and from its Central Command (CENTCOM) and in line with its CON OPS (Concept of Operations) we will be issuing a “threat assessment” and “SECA” (Security and Alert) levels spreadsheets for award usage by the security arena and the general public, in our preparedness level to guarantee our security architecture, ensure the securitization of Nigeria citizens and their corporate peace and Harmony. This is also captured in the “AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY OF NiCoT” which included recommended scope of duty and operations of NiCoT.
In the military, AOR (Area of Responsibility) means trouble spot.
Our volunteering services are in line with complimenting the efforts of security agencies, to put before them a ready tool and tactical organogram for action. Thus NiCoT conducts what is termed as BDA (Bomb Damage Assessment) and TDA (Terror Damage Assessment) on “terrorist hideouts and “ground zero” after any terror attack.
The above is done by using fuzzy imagery and contradictory intelligence to appraise if a particular target had been destroyed or assessing the degree of damages on a site of any terror attack.
NiCoT is also able to degrade, confuse, or defuse hostile radars, sensors, or radio communication with the use of Electro-Magnetic Counter Measures (ECM).
NiCoT have an Electronic Counter Counter-Measures so as to have/put in place an active or passive defensive measures against enemy’s ECM such as frequency looping, or spread spectrum waveforms.
NiCoT also carry out ELINT (Electronic Intelligence Intercept and Analysis) of any radar, radio frequency and other electromagnetic emission in order to determine terrorist/enemy’s location, numbers and capabilities.
NiCoT also provides the government security agencies and emergency officials with threat assessment, as well as utilizing news outlets and social media networking resources to notify the general public. It will also outline steps to take in response to a particular terrorist threat. Out NiCoT instrumentations include:
SECA 1: Least Severe (Green); lowest risk of terrorist attack and normal security and alert situation.
SECA 2: (Blue) increased intelligence watch and strengthened security measure with general risk of terrorist attack.
SECA 3: (Yellow) increase in force readiness above that is required for normal readiness (medium readiness) with significant risk of terrorist attack.
SECA 4: (Orange) High risk of terrorist attack.
SECA 5: Most severe (Red) severe risk of terrorist attack (maximum readiness).
Now to matter arising.
NiCoT in its various PIDB (President’s Intelligence Daily Briefings) has always predicted the upsurge in criminality we are witnessing in the country in the face of seeming victorious war on insurgency.
NiCoT is not unmindful of various events which posed enormous threats to national security and public safety.
In the last thirty (30) days, there has been an upsurge in robberies and kidnappings in Kaduna, FCT, Kogi and violent attacks by “herdsmen” in Benue, Taraba, Ondo and Plateau states.
NiCoT had in earlier briefings and terror alert warnings stated ‘all these might seem unconnected but it humbly submits these happenings and increased criminal activities have a negative import and corrosive impact on our national security and public safety’.
One event which formed the basis for this intelligence analysis was the abduction of Col. Samaila Inusa on Sunday 27th March 2016 and was later found dead some days later.
Based on preliminary psychoanalysis of this event, we believe the kidnap was carried out by members of Boko Haram who escaped and sneaked through the buffer zones around the theatre of the ongoing war on insurgency in North East.
The Late Colonel was a victim of random kidnap and was not a target because of his profession. It is also believed his identity was not known to his abductors.
It is believed while on transit to their “safe house” or location was when they knew who their victim was and during analysis of event in the situation room when the news of the abduction broke, NiCoT made its submission that the abducted Colonel might not return and we should be looking for a body.
This was not an act of insensitivity, but deep professional thinking. NiCoT believed, based on his training, the abducted Colonel will never try to engage his abductors unless he was sure of his chances of winning such battle. It is usually, also expected of any kidnapper(s) to rummage through the belongings of their victims. This is to give them a clue on the status and personality of their latest victim, and the ransom to demand for.
We believed when it dawned on them they have an officer of the Nigeria Army, he will be “discarded”. He became a hot package! You don’t expect the relevant intelligence outfits of the military not to deploy all their resources to rescue one of their own.
Based on his training, the Late Colonel could not be released alive; he will be an asset to lead a trail back to them.
One thing during any psychoanalysis which forms an intelligence analysis – especially geospatial intelligence buffers, there is an extreme imitation of thinking of the ‘target’ or ‘subject’.
So we in NiCoT preliminarily assumed the role of a terrorist or the terrorist organisation in a bid to pre-empt the most unthinkable plots they might have. After engagement in such exercise, NiCoT believes the abduction of the Colonel will form a new modus operandi for the organisation. Even quite unnatural, NiCoT believes there are active cells in Niger and Kaduna states and after analysis of their activities we put their locations at Dikko, Sarkin Powa and Suleja(Command Centre) in Niger State and Samanika, Kagarko with either Chikun and Kachia the Command Centre in Kaduna State.
NiCoT believes these terrorist found a ready ally in the Fulani herdsmen, and through their cattle rustling episodes and their fierce engagements with locals in their decoy plots in the name of finding proper grazing fields for their cattle. Further asymmetric analysis intelligence analysis show these Fulani herdsmen are indoctrinated and armed to disturb public peace, in order to access their targets through diversionary tactics of soft target engagements via armed robbery, kidnapping and mild assassination attempts. This we believe is to enhance their activities, attack Nigeria from within.
Detection will not be easy as their new “agents” cannot be sieved from the large population of herdsmen all over the county. NiCoT also identified possible routes for their movements and this will be highlighted below.
In furtherance of the intelligence psychoanalysis, it is believed the terrorist group have mapped out a route between Kaduna and Niger state. NiCoT team believes along this route is a safe house or safe houses.
The suspected route which is mainly for their kidnapping activities runs through Muya, Shiroro, Gurara, Tafa and Suleja. For haulage of their weaponry to the Fulani herdsmen, their suspected route into Zamfara from Niger is through Rafi, Mairiga, and Rijau and into Kebbi for the same purpose is through Agwara into Borgu. For Kogi, it is through Lapai. This they extend to states like Edo and Ondo. In Kaduna state, the route into Plateau state to get instructions and armament to the “herdsmen” runs through Jaba, Jema’a and Gwantu. This is further improved upon to get into Taraba and Benue.
NiCoT also believes there is a safe location in Samanika, Lere or Kubau. This can further run through Bauchi and Gombe states. Also a suspected route into Zamfara is through Birin Gwari.
After establishing suspected routes for their activities, NiCoT believes the next modus operandi of the terrorist group is to target politically exposed figures with military background. It is believed that the happenstance of the kidnapping and killing of Late Col. Inusa has triggered off a new concept of operations for them.
This we assumed was borne out of deep resentment towards the military as an institution.
The old guards enforced a change in political leadership which brought about a new leadership in the military and vibrant force. This had brought about a massive degradation of the terrorist group and its activities.
Again, this brought our team to the conclusion that some old guards who enforced or played prominent roles in effecting the change are targets.
In no specific order the underlisted persons are suspected to be in imminent danger. They are:
1. Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo(Rtd)
2. Gen. Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida(Rtd)
3. Gen. T.Y Danjuma(Rtd)
4. Gen. Abdusalam Abubakar(Rtd)
5. Brig Gen. Buba Marwa(Rtd)
6. Brig Gen. Olagunsoye Oyinlola(Rtd)
Some other political exposed persons who are also in imminent danger but with no military background are:
1. Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and
2. Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, etc.
The highpoint of this analysis is a suspected audacious attempt or attack on President Muhammmadu Buhari, and the probable day or date is put at May 29 on the celebration of Democracy Day.
This is the day which will make an emphatic statement on the capabilities of the group and its claim of still being very much up and running.
RECOMMENDED STEPS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE TO THESE TERRORISTS’ THREATS:
As NiCoT operations, my first constituency is the Armed Forces of the Federation and other law enforcement agencies, and I will do whatever its takes to compliment the efforts of the government to guarantee safety and our nation’s future unity.
Hence the Police Command in the state of residence of the aforementioned former military men should deploy BDS (Bomb Disposal Squad) close to their abodes.
The DSS should also beef up surveillance activities around these people, get their itinerary and create a safe corridor for them along their expected route.
The DSS and DMI (Directorate of Military Intelligence) should embark on coordinated attempt to crack the cells in these two states, and increase surveillance and patrol along all the routes and locations listed above.
NiCoT also recommended that until this is done and achieved, the Democracy Day Celebration should either be suspended or be at a secured location.
After going through this, it might be seen and classified as ‘wild conjectures”, and some might make sense to a lot of you but we in NiCoT assures Nigerians and Friends of the Nigerian nation, that this is no effort or an attempt to spread fear or anxiety, but a contribution towards the protection of the sanctity of our nation’s sovereignty.
God Bless Nigeria.
Dr. Carl Oshodi
Dir. Of Field Opts